From Sand to Superintelligence  ·  Drill cards · Chapter 41
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What share of US occupational tasks are plausibly automatable with current AI, per McKinsey/MIT-style analyses?~30% — the routine cognitive layer.
What is the range for customer-support ticket resolution without human escalation at large deployments in 2026?10–40%, varying widely by domain; climbs past 50% on narrow product-support corpora.
Which two data sources does the chapter cite for the slowdown in entry-level software-developer postings?BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Indeed Hiring Lab.
What does the chapter call the category of work most directly affected by AI?Routine cognitive labour — tasks that follow patterns, can be specified in writing, and produce text or structured data.
Name the five historical 'wires' the chapter references when framing AI as a general-purpose-technology transition.The telegraph, the telephone, the internet, the smartphone, and now AI (the fifth wire).
What is happening to mid-tier SaaS margins, per the chapter?They are being compressed — products sold for $50/seat/month face undercutting at $5/seat/month or in-house AI builds, reducing pricing power.
What distinguishes high-margin new software from squeezed software in the chapter's framing?High-margin software integrates AI as its core capability (coding assistants, design tools, research platforms); squeezed software is boring SaaS whose functionality AI commoditizes.
What does the chapter say about long-tail publishers relying on search referral?Many are in serious distress; some are pivoting to direct content-licensing deals with model providers as the new revenue path.
What is the chapter's honest caveat on forecasts beyond three years?Forecasts more than three years out are not honest — stated explicitly in the 'who keeps what' section.
What does the chapter identify as the actual policy challenge of this decade?The gap between the speed of technology change and the pace of the institutions designed to respond — labour markets, education, social safety nets, antitrust — which are several years to a decade slower.