Tool 14 · the lab · Read: Ch. 17 – 18 — Valuation

Startup Valuation Multi-Method Comparator

Enter company fundamentals once. Five valuation methods compute simultaneously: VC Method, Revenue Multiple, Comparable Transactions, Berkus/Scorecard (pre-revenue Seed), and First Chicago (scenario-weighted). Reconcile to a defensible range and implied ownership at your check size.

Inspired by Sutton Capital “PE/VC Analyst’s Valuation Trick” framework.

Company Fundamentals

Current ARR / Revenue ($M)

Revenue Growth Rate (%)

Net Revenue Retention (%)

100% = flat; 120% = strong expansion

Gross Margin (%)

Your Check Size ($M)

Stage

Method 1 — VC Method (Backward from Exit)

Expected ARR at Exit ($M)

Exit ARR Multiple (x)

Hold Period (years)

Target Fund MOIC (x)

Method 2 — Revenue Multiple (Comps)

Low Sector ARR Multiple (x)

High Sector ARR Multiple (x)

Method 3 — First Chicago (Scenario-Weighted)

Assign exit values and probabilities across three scenarios. Probabilities must sum to 100%.

Base Case Exit Value ($M)

Base Probability (%)

Upside Exit Value ($M)

Upside Probability (%)

Downside Exit Value ($M)

Downside Probability (%)

Valuation by Method — Pre-Money ($M)

Sutton Capital — Analyst Valuation Tricks

VC Method: Work backward from exit; adjust for dilution in future rounds (typically 25-30% per round)
Revenue Multiple: Quality-adjust the multiple — NRR >120%, Gross Margin >75%, growth >100% = premium multiple
First Chicago: Used at growth stage; forces explicit probability weighting, reveals that most value comes from upside scenario
Scorecard/Berkus: Only for pre-revenue; benchmarks team, IP, execution, market, and product against median Seed value
Reconciliation: A defensible valuation sits at the intersection of 3+ methods; outlier methods identify assumptions to stress-test